All these politicians seemed to have chosen to do the vanishing act in the face of mounting tensions on the ground. For the Russian President, matters came to a head when the Russian opposition leader Boris Y. Nemtsov was gunned down near the Kremlin on 27 Feb 2015 and the supporters of the slain politician blamed Putin for creating an environment of hatred in Russia that led to the assassination of Nemstov.  The Delhi Chief Minister riding high on a dream victory in the Delhi assembly elections was caught in a crisis in the face of the the revolt within his party and a series of exposes that exploded the myth of AAP as a political party with a difference.  And for Rahul Gandhi, the annihilation of his party in the Delhi assembly election coming on the heels of the drubbing it received in the 2014 Parliament elections and the comprehensive defeats it suffered in the state elections thereafter, had created a crisis of credibility for his leadership.

The budget session of the Parliament that commenced on 23 Feb 2015 was crucial for the Congress party in many ways. It was particularly so because of the Land Acquisition Bill. The Land Acquisition Law was enacted by the Congress led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government in 2013 to replace the Act of 1894 of colonial vintage on the subject.  The bill was passed with the support of the BJP, which then occupied the opposition benches.  But the new BJP government under Prime Minister Modi took the view that the Act of 2013 did not adequately meet its ‘developmental agenda’. So the Modi government issued an ordinance making changes to the Act. The government was seeking to introduce a new Land Acquisition Bill in the budget session of the 16^th Lok Sabha to make those changes permanent through the legislative process. 

Farmers’ welfare was a matter close to the heart of Rahul Gandhi. At least that is what we were being told by the Congress party, which claimed that he was the ‘architect’ of the UPA’s Land Acquisition legislation. Obviously, the Congress party could not accept the changes proposed to their bill by the new regime. The party planned to organize protests against the bill outside the Parliament. It had also plans to challenge the bill within the Parliament. Rahul Gandhi was expected to lead the opposition assault against the new bill both outside and inside the Parliament.  Then, on the eve of the of the budget session came the news that Rahul Gandhi would not be around since he went away on a sabbatical to “reflect upon recent events and the future course of the party.“

None is grudging the Congress Vice President a break to introspect and strategize after leading his party to decimation in elections after elections. But what came as a surprise to many was the timing. Even people from his own party wondered whether his opting to go on a leave of absence in the midst of a key Parliament Session was a politically wise move. His party colleagues who were parading themselves as the mentors and conscious keepers of Rahul Gandhi, suddenly appeared all at sea.  One of them considered exceptionally close to the next-in-the-line Prime Minister of India said that Rahul was very much within the country. But it was more or less obvious that none really knew. Rahul Gandhi simply melted into thin air leaving everyone guessing.

Having seen how modern day media gets its so-called ‘exclusive’, ‘breaking news’ and ‘first time on the media’ access to top-secret information from all corners of the globe and beyond, it is rather puzzling that the spies of investigative journalism of the Indian media have not been able to track down Rahul Gandhi so far. Of course, the media made some attempts in the beginning with a ‘breaking news’ revelation that Rahul Gandhi was taking off from Delhi to Bangkok and from there to Greece. Even some flight numbers and its timings were bandied around. But that was it and the trail went cold leaving the media silent thereafter. Speculations about his whereabouts resurfaced after a Congress Party man posted a photograph of Rahul Gandhi camping out purportedly at the foothills of the Himalayas somewhere in Uttarakhand.  This was pooh-poohed by the party and eventually the man came clean to confess that the photograph he posted was from one of Rahul’s previous outings.

The sudden and surprising flight of the party’s mascot  and its Vice President from the battlefield at a critical moment has become a cause of serious discomfiture for the Congress party. Its attempt to explain away his absence as a routine matter has not cut any ice with anyone. Consequent up on his decision to go missing without a trace, the party’s initial plans to make him lead a farmers’ agitation against the new land bill failed to work out. The party then told the media that he would return from hiding in the first week of Mar 2015, to spearhead a farmers’ protest march to the capital from the Bhatta-Parsaul village in Uttar Pradesh’s Greater Noida district. (Bhatta-Parsaul was the place where he had started his agitations for the farmers’ cause when Ms Mayavati was the UP Chief Minister). But Rahul Gandhi failed to turn up for the march. 

It has now been over a month since Rahul Gandhi went out of sight from the political arena of the country. None seems to have a clue on this queer case of Rahul Gandhi’s sudden disappearance. The social media, which has never been kind to Rahul Gandhi or the Congress Party, is replete with all kinds of sleazy humour and wild guesses.  There are also some funny lookout notices. But his whereabouts continues to remain tightly wrapped in mystery.

The first phase of the budget session of the Parliament ended yesterday (20.03.2015) without seeing the Congress Vice President. The Congress party has announced that Rahul would be returning to Parliament when it reconvenes on 20.04.2015. As regards his coming, your guess is as good as mine.  But there is one striking reality.  It is that none seems to have missed Rahul Gandhi. And Sonia Gandhi seems to have taken matters into her won hands once again. Then, there was hardly any tangible presence of him in the nation’s political space even when he was not in hiding.  Even his attendance records in Parliament and standing committees are among the worst. It has been reported that his attendance is just 13.64% in the standing committees. One cannot help asking whether Rahul Gandhi is truly serious about his role as a politician. 

Going by his performance so far as a politician, one may have to be a bit circumspect about Rahul Gandhi’s potential to revive his party. For instance, the nation saw him interviewed by Arnab Goswamy of the Times Now TV channel in Jan 2014. Of course, it is not easy even for experienced hands to negotiate Mr Goswamy. (Those who have seen him in action might have noticed how he keeps screaming and bullying). But Rahul Gandhi has been a politician and a public figure for over a decade. Yet we saw him squirming in his seat and fumbling for responses to the most basic questions. He answered with his oft-repeated statement on women empowerment when he was asked about corruption.

He appeared on national TV later in conversation with Javed Ansari of the Headlines Today channel. The episode was in Hindi and Rahul Gandhi looked more composed that time around. However, critics claimed that the interview was a fixed match. The nation also saw him speaking at a function organized by the Confederation of Indian Industries (CII).  He sounded rather puerile in his interactions. Rahul Gandhi is now a third term MP in the Lok Sabha.  In the last Lok Sabha he intervened in debates on just two occasions. One was what has come to be known as his Kalavati speech. The other was his proposal to make Lokpal a constitutional authority. At least once, the cameras caught him napping through a debate. Does such a person instil confidence in the rank and file of the party? Considering that a highly combative Sri Narendra Modi is his rival, the situation looks too unevenly placed for the comfort of the Congress party. 

Yet, we often hear about his plans for revamping the party.  We are told that he did a great job dealing with the organizational elections in the Youth Congress. But ultimately, the success of a political leaders efforts would be evaluated on the basis of the electoral performance of his party.  And the electoral performance of the party, after Rahul Gandhi was given a prominent role in the party affairs in 2009, has been steadily going downhill.  The Congress party lost 24 out of 36 state and Union Territory elections it contested since Rahul Gandhi became the party’s star election campaigner. The last Lok Sabha elections found the party tumbling to its worst ever tally. It even failed to qualify to be a recognized opposition party.

Perhaps, there are no reasons to suspect his good intentions.  But as the saying goes, the road to hell is often paved with good intentions.  Commentators often say that Rahul Gandhi has to turn more passionate about politics if he has to survive as a politician. I feel there are reasons to wary about his commitment to politics. For instance, it was reported in the media that on the evening of the day of polling in the recent Delhi elections, Aravind Kejriwal of the AAP and Amit Shah of the BJP were in their respective party offices, huddled with their party workers assessing the outcome of the election. But Rahul Gandhi was altogether missing from the scene.  Media reported that he was partying with his chums in some Delhi hotel.  This is where the critical difference of leadership lies. And if that is the level of his commitment to politics, it would be a bleak future for the Congress party.

The Congress party is passing through an existential crisis. It is a party that held power most of the time across independent India.  But currently it is in power on its own, only in six states viz. Karnataka, Himachal Pradesh, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh. In terms of population, these states account for just over 6%. The congress party also runs coalition governments in Kerala, Uttarakhand and Assam, which account for another 6% of India’s population. Thus, when it comes to governing India, as of now the party’s involvement is limited to just over 12% of the nation’s 120 crore plus population. Incidentally, this is less than the population of Uttar Pradesh.  There are enough indications of the restlessness of the people in the party who have suddenly found themselves without power and clout.  Many have already jumped ship. The party badly needs a  dynamic and inspiring leadership if it has to save itself from ruin. 

Although Rahul Gandhi still retains his boyish looks, the fact remains that he is already 45 years old.  He has been in politics for over a decade. He must realize that for him, it is now or never.  If he does not have the passion for politics, the party should look elsewhere for its future.  Rahul Gandhi seems to be a mere seasonal phenomenon.  But no political leader can save or serve his party by remaining in his default state of hibernation to make guest appearances once in a blue moon.   An article by Mohd Asim, Senior News Editor, NDTV 24×7 says, “The Grand Old Party is on a ventilator. Its death will be bad news for democracy. But dynasty is not its lifeline. Rahul can take a sabbatical to ‘reflect’ on his future.  But he does not seem to be the best man to script a Congress comeback. And no ‘reflection’ is needed for that.”

None seems to understand the causes behind the serious inconsistencies seen in his political performance. I understand from information available online that Rahul Gandhi had his education in elite institutions in India and abroad. He had studied in St. Stephen’s College, Delhi, spent a year at Harvard and obtained an M Phil degree from Trinity College, Cambridge. It is surprising that in spite of such enviable educational background, he should appear so timid and unsure in his public and media appearances. May be it is easy to be judgemental about people whom we know only from their public appearances. People have their private pains that we probably would never realize. It is quite possible that Rahul Gandhi had a rather traumatic childhood. It is possible that right from his infant days he lived in an environment of security threats. He did not have the good fortune of continuing for long in one place or in one educational institution. His uncle died in a plane crash. His grandmother was brutally murdered by her own security guards.  His father met with a violent death in a bloody human bomb explosion. He had suffered considerable pain and anguish as a youngster. Those who taunt him and say that he was born with a silver spoon in his mouth might not be able to fathom the depth of his agonies. May be his past has something to do with his tentative approach to politics.

May be, the Congress party should  consider whether it has to persist with Rahul Gandhi’s leadership to bring it around. This seems particularly important after his latest vanishing act has further dented his credibility as a politician ready to take challenges head on. The party still has in its fold, highly competent people of all age group. For instance, I have heard Jyotiraditya Scindia speaking in the Lok Sabha on the Land Bill.  I watch Sachin Pilot debating on the national TV.  And it is always edifying to listen to Sri P Chidambaram. On clarity of ideas and power of articulation, Rahul Gandhi does not seem to come anywhere close to people like these.

In the matter of political talent, the Congress party is still far richer in comparison to its rivals. It has the option to look for leadership alternatives to make a comeback. While Prime Minister Modiji may call for a Congress free India (Congress Mukt Bharat), the country’s democracy needs a strong alternative to the ruling party. As the only other national party, Congress alone seems to be in a position to fit the bill.  But the party seems to be trapped in its delusionary mindset to believe that a scion from the Nehru-Gandhi family is the essential glue for it to stay together. Well.  The party knows what is best for it…

———————